The BSP is at the crossroads in the politically important Uttar Pradesh. With declining vote bank during the last three elections the survival of the party is at stake. It is not that only Muslims and Brahmins, who had propelled her to power with full majority in 2007 assembly election, had deserted the BSP in 2022 election, Mayawati’s core Dalit vote has also been showing signs of departure to the BJP since 2014 Lok Sabha elections, writes M Hasan
Lucknow, October 8: Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has planned mega rally in Lucknow on October 9 on death anniversary of the party’s founder Kanshi Ram. The BSP supremo Mayawati, who has already overhauled the organization with appointment of her nephews Akash Anand and Ishan Anand in the party, plans to rejuvenate the party before 2027 UP assembly election.
After negligible performance in 2022 assembly election and 2024 Lok Sabha election the BSP has now been making last-ditch effort to remain relevant in UP’s politics in next election. After two successive poll debacle BSP has turned into rudderless boat in body-politic of the state. While there has been large-scale migration of Dalit vote to BJP in previous elections, the desertion of Muslims, upper caste and OBC for greener pasture turned the party into dire distress.
After dismal performance of BSP in 2022 UP Assembly election in which the party with 12 per cent vote could win only one seat and further setback in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, there is now massive race between ruling BJP and Samajwadi Party to grab Dalit voters. Thus, Dalits icons are being appropriated by the two parties to reach out to the community, which has been dithering in its support to BSP during the last four elections.
As of now the BSP is at the crossroads in the politically important Uttar Pradesh. With declining vote bank during the last three elections the survival of the party is at stake. It is not that only Muslims and Brahmins, who had propelled her to power with full majority in 2007 assembly election, had deserted the BSP in 2022 election, Mayawati’s core Dalit vote has also been showing signs of departure to the BJP since 2014 Lok Sabha elections. After the 2022 results even Mayawati accepted that Dalit voters shifted to BJP because of the fear of arrival of “Jungle raj” of Samajwadi Party. The CSDS-Lokniti poll survey had indicated that 21 per cent Jatavs (Mayawati’s community) and 41 per cent non-Jatavs (Dalits) had supported the BJP.
Though the Dalit community has been closely aligned with the BSP for a long time, the resurgence of BJP in 2014 had changed Dalit dynamics as the Sangh Parivar laid stress on reaching out to Dalits which yielded positive results as large chunk has moved to the BJP. But 2022 UP election analysis by CSDS indicated that even core Jatav base of Mayawati had also decreased. While 87 percent Jatavs had voted for Mayawati in 2017, the electoral support came down to 65 per cent in 2022 poll. Of 66 sub-castes in Dalit community Jatavs constituted around 50 per cent and other prominent sub-castes are Valmiks, Khatiks, Pasis, Koeris and others. These sub-castes had revolted against Mayawati after 2007 assembly election when after coming to power Mayawati paid more attention to Jatavs- a caste which she also belongs. Now there is a feeling in the BSP that Jatav vote, which had gone to BJP, may comeback to the party if Mayawati succeeds in re-organizing party with alliance of some non-Dalit communities.
While losing election in 2012, the BSP had won 80 seats with around 25 per cent vote. But in 2017 the number went down to 19 with 23 per cent total vote share. In 2019 Lok Sabha election when SP-BSP joined hands she got ten seats with 19 per cent vote. Muslims had fully supported the alliance. It may be recalled that despite Mayawati joining hands with BJP to become chief minister twice in the past and even campaigning for the BJP in Gujarat election in 2002, the Muslim community extended full support to her in 2007.
But after 2019 Lok Sabha elections there had been disenchantment in the community because of her soft posturing towards the BJP, which led to desertion of around half a dozen Muslim MLAs in 2021 to SP. She was largely seen as playing second fiddle to the BJP in UP and keeping quite on Muslim issues and even now there appears to be no change on the minority’s issues. The UP narrative against BSP in the community was set in during CAA protest. It is for this reason the community has veered round to the view instead of “indirectly support the BJP via BSP, it should directly support it”.
With 1.17 crore vote in 2022 (12.9 per cent), Mayawati has announced to gear up the party afresh and make some “bold move”. Pointing out that Dalit community, particularly the 12 per cent Jatavs supported her party, Mayawati then said “I am proud of Dalits who stood with their missionary movement and the party leadership. I appeal to the party supporters not to let down their morale”. But she was not happy with the Muslims, whom she had publically blamed for poll debacle in 2022 assembly elections. Mayawati had blamed “Muslim vote” for the dismal performance of her party in UP assembly elections. She said shifting of Muslim vote to Samajwadi Party has caused debacle of BSP which could win just one seat with 12.9 per cent vote.
At a time when the party has been making last-ditch efforts to stage a comeback, Mayawati’s projected Brahmin-Muslim card would be watched with interest. While 2007 Brahmin face Satish Chandra Mishra is in party, the then “Muslim face” Nasimuddin Siddique”, is in Samajwadi Party. As of now the BSP doesnot have pan-UP Muslim face to bring back the community to its fold. Even though there are reports of “Brahmin community” being disenchanted with the BJP in UP, will it really move away from saffron brigade in debatable. The political conditions in 2007 were absolutely different when this mobilzation had worked.
Similarly, the movement of Muslim community from SP to BSP would be possible only if the community is assured of Brahmi-Dalit communities getting consolidated in favour of BSP. The community has been politically marginalized during the last 12 years and more than anything else has been fight battle for “samman and Suraksha” (respect and security). There is rampant feeling in the community that these issues are of utmost significance, which needed attention from any political party seeking its support.
The party’s national vote share in 2009 general election was 6.2 percent, which came down to 4.2 percent in 2014 (no seat), 3.7 percent in 2019 with victory on ten UP seats in alliance with Samajwadi Party and 2.04 percent in 2024. Except in 2019 the BSP had no truck with any other party during the remaining three previous Lok Sabha elections.
At present not considering a recognizable national space for the Dalit organization, if the BSP is to survive in its mother state UP it has to fight against BJP’s 41.37 percent and SP’s 33.59 percent vote share. The BSP’s vote share in 2024 Lok Sabha election in UP, when it had contested all 80 seats was around 9.24 percent. As against any BSP’s victory on any seat, the newly floated rival Dalit organization Azad Samaj Party’s president Chandrashekhar Azad captured Nagina Lok Sabha seat from West UP. Since Shekhar has been making deft effort to make dent into BSP’s vote bank, Mayawati specially devised action plan for west UP to retrieve fragmented Dalit votes.
Now for the BSP the 2027 elections are “do-or-die” battle. Since alliance of at least three or more dominant castes are necessary to capture power in UP, the BSP is now hankering for Dalit-Backward and Muslim tie-up. However, BSP, no longer a unified voice of all Dalit communities, will have to bring them on one platform before working on others. At least 30 percent plus vote share is a vital figure to come to power in UP, the BSP seems to have a tall order to move from 12 percent (2022 results) to catch this figure. It will have to dislodge the well-entrenched SP from the second pedestal to achieve the tall target to take on saffron brigade.
(M Hasan is former Chief of Bureau, Hindustan Times, Lucknow)
