Will M-M combination boost Cong prospects in 2027 UP election?

The appointment of Mona and Masood is also significant at a time when talks for seat sharing with Samajwadi Party, a leading member of INDIA bloc, is underway. In party circle Aradhna Mishra Mona and her father Pramod Tiwari, a Rajya Sabha member, have always been known for having soft corner for SP leadership. While Tiwari’s proximity with late Mulayam Singh Yadav was well-known, Mona has reportedly soft corner for SP president Akhilesh Yadav. It is just against approach of Imran Masood, who has been trying to widen and consolidate his political grip in western UP and is reportedly at “logger-heads” with SP MP from Kairana (Saharanpur) Iqra Hasan. She is also making efforts to emerge as “Muslim face” of the party in minority-dominated western UP, writes M Hasan

Lucknow, Oct 3, Even as Uttar Pradesh is preparing for prestigious state assembly election early next year (2027), the All India Congress Committee (AICC) on Friday appointed party MLA Aradhna Mishra Mona as UP party chief and its MP from Saharanpur Imran Masood as “working president”. The party has also appointed Devinder Nishad and Alok Prasad as senior vice presidents. The new state leadership has thus tough task ahead to energize the party for election.

While playing “Brahmin-Muslim” card by appointing Mona and Masood (M-M) to lead the party into 2027 assembly election, the leadership has also kept in mind its social engineering ploy in the appointment of Devinder Nishad, a leader from OBC community and Alok Prasad from Pasi community. It had already made Rajendra Pal Gautam, a Dalit, as state in-charge. However, the combination of Mona and Masood at the helms of affairs of UP Congress has evoked curious response in the party circle in the state. Both have demonstrated their close proximity to AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi. While retaining her Rampur Khas assembly seat for the third time in 2022 election, Mona was prominent face with Priyanka Gandhi’s failed “ladki hoon lad sakti hoon” (I am girl, I can fight) campaign during previous election as the party could win only two assembly seats with just 2.39 percent vote. This is for the second time that Congress has decided to repose trust in a woman leadership in UP. In 2007-2012 Rita Bahuguna was made UP chief when Mayawati had dislodged Mulayam Singh Yadav Government. Rita Bahuguna is now in BJP.

The appointment of Mona and Masood is also significant at a time when talks for seat sharing with Samajwadi Party, a leading member of INDIA bloc, is underway. In party circle Aradhna Mishra Mona and her father Pramod Tiwari, a Rajya Sabha member, have always been known for having soft corner for SP leadership. While Tiwari’s proximity with late Mulayam Singh Yadav was well-known, Mona has reportedly soft corner for SP president Akhilesh Yadav. It is just against approach of Imran Masood, who has been trying to widen and consolidate his political grip in western UP and is reportedly at “logger-heads” with SP MP from Kairana (Saharanpur) Iqra Hasan. She is also making efforts to emerge as “Muslim face” of the party in minority-dominated western UP.

Thus the tussle between to two (Masood and Iqra) for Muslim vote in this crucial region cannot be ruled out. How the political situation would pan out between two parties for dominance in western UP will be watched with interest. Imran Masood is known for his “aggressive style of functioning”. He has been vociferously campaigning for larger seat share in alliance with the SP. The SP leadership has however made it repeatedly clear that it would accept moderate demand of the Congress with only “winnable candidates”. It is not yet clear as “working president” what task would be assigned to Masood.

The efforts of the Congress in the last assembly elections to win over Brahmin and Muslim communities failed to yield desired results as its vote percentage came down from 6.25 percent (2017) to 2.35 per cent in 2022. Even the then UPCC chief Lallu also lost the elections. Only Aradhna Mishra Mona (Rampur Khas) and Virendra Chaudhury (Pharenda-Maharajganj) could win the elections.  While Brahmin community has largely shifted to BJP, the Samajwadi Party has octopus like grip over Muslim community.  Reports indicated that Muslim community wanted SP-Congress alliance for 2027, but any bickering or distancing between the two parties is unlikely to help Congress.

With dismal performance in 2022 assembly elections the UP Congress has been facing crisis of existence in the state. In view of the emergence of bipolar polity in 2022 elections, which appears to continue in 2027 also, the Congress would have to gear up organisationally in next few months to gain respectable ground. In 2024 Lok Sabha election it could win six seats in alliance with the SP.

The downfall of the Congress has been consistent since 2014. Even though the Congress has been out of power in the state for the last three decades, 2014 Lok Sabha election made it further irrelevant when it could win just two seats-Amethi and Rai Bareli. In 2019 only AICC president Sonia Gandhi could retain her Rai Bareli seat.  The last best performance of the Congress was in 2009 Lok Sabha elections when the party won 22 seats to form UPA II government.

While in 2017 assembly poll the Congress was reduced to single digit- seven seat count for the first time in decades, it was wiped out of the political map of the state with just two seats in 2022. Despite Priyanka Gandhi’s hard campaigning the Congress had plunged into deep electoral crisis. In fact, over the last three decades with the fragmentation of Congress vote bank-Brahmin, Muslims and Dalits- the party lost core support base in the state. While the Congress decimation had started with rise of regional outfits-Samajwadi Party and BSP- where its core vote had largely gone, the menacing rise of BJP after 2014 Lok Sabha election led to the process of complete annihilation.

(M Hasan is former Chief of Bureau Hindustan Times, Lucknow)

 

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